[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":407},["ShallowReactive",2],{"navigation":3,"research-navigation":16,"research:\u002Fresearch\u002Fstate-of-nordic-venture-q2-2026":33},[4,8,12],{"title":5,"path":6,"stem":7},"How we invest","\u002Fhow-we-invest","1.how-we-invest",{"title":9,"path":10,"stem":11},"Research","\u002Fresearch","2.research",{"title":13,"path":14,"stem":15},"About","\u002Fabout","3.about",[17],{"title":9,"path":10,"stem":18,"children":19,"page":32},"research",[20,24,28],{"title":21,"path":22,"stem":23},"AI is speeding up drug discovery. What happens next?","\u002Fresearch\u002Fai-drug-discovery-bottlenecks","research\u002Fai-drug-discovery-bottlenecks",{"title":25,"path":26,"stem":27},"Cheap intelligence, expensive trust","\u002Fresearch\u002Fcheap-intelligence-expensive-trust","research\u002Fcheap-intelligence-expensive-trust",{"title":29,"path":30,"stem":31},"State of Nordic venture, Q2 2026","\u002Fresearch\u002Fstate-of-nordic-venture-q2-2026","research\u002Fstate-of-nordic-venture-q2-2026",false,{"id":34,"title":29,"author":35,"body":36,"date":365,"description":366,"extension":367,"kind":368,"meta":369,"navigation":370,"path":30,"seo":371,"sitemap":373,"sources":374,"stem":31,"updatedAt":405,"__hash__":406},"research\u002Fresearch\u002Fstate-of-nordic-venture-q2-2026.md","Sina Neda",{"type":37,"value":38,"toc":355},"minimark",[39,47,50,55,62,82,85,89,92,95,115,119,125,137,146,149,152,155,163,167,182,185,188,191,194,198,207,211,245,249],[40,41,43],"evidence",{"type":42},"thesis",[44,45,46],"p",{},"State funds, EU programs and university vehicles did 48% of the deals by the most active investors in Nordic VC in Q2 2026. That's in line with Europe's 50%. The US, at 2%, is the outlier. Where the Nordics do differ is depth: it took 3 deals to make the Nordic table, against 9 in Europe and 19 in the US. Nordic institutions look strong on Europe's deal-value table, but most of that comes from one round, Stegra's. And on PitchBook's indicator, which I read as US data, early-stage terms moved toward startups over the year, even as cumulative dividends became more common.",[44,48,49],{},"This is the first edition of a quarterly note on the Nordic venture market. The league tables rank the most active investors in each region's deals in Q2 2026 by the number of deals they joined, led or not. Investors count wherever they're based, so the Nordic table includes the European Innovation Council and a US firm. When I call an investor Nordic, I mean it's headquartered there. A deal counts once for each ranked investor in it, so totals are participations, not distinct deals. The tables leave out investors below the cut-off, and late-reported deals can still raise Q2 counts.",[51,52,54],"h2",{"id":53},"state-eu-and-university-investors-did-about-half-the-deals","State, EU and university investors did about half the deals",[44,56,57,61],{},[58,59,60],"strong",{},"Figure 1. State, EU and university investors did about half of leaderboard deals in the Nordics and Europe, and almost none in the US."," Share of each region's leaderboard deals done by state funds, EU programs and university vehicles, Q2 2026.",[63,64,70,77],"chart",{":data":65,":decimals":66,":horizontal":67,"format":68,"highlight":69},"[[\"Nordics\",48.1],[\"Europe\",49.9],[\"US\",2.1]]","0","true","percent","Nordics",[71,72,74],"template",{"v-slot:source":73},"",[44,75,76],{},"Licensed league tables, Q2 2026.",[71,78,79],{"v-slot:note":73},[44,80,81],{},"Investor types are my classification.",[44,83,84],{},"Almi Invest led the Nordic table with 15 deals. Among the other state, EU and university investors, EIFO and Chalmers Ventures did 8 each and the European Innovation Council 7. With ties, the top nine places hold 11 investors, and 7 of them are state, EU or university investors. Private venture firms did 44% of the Nordic table's deals, against 59% in the US, where accelerators and venture firms did nearly all the rest.",[51,86,88],{"id":87},"the-nordic-bench-is-thin","The Nordic bench is thin",[44,90,91],{},"Each table lists about 25 investors plus ties, so its length says little: 27 for the Nordics and 28 each for Europe and the US. The bar to get on is what differs. It took 3 deals to make the Nordic table, 9 for Europe's and 19 for the US's, and 14 of the 27 Nordic entries did exactly 3. Antler did 10, and Lifeline Ventures, Validé and Wave Ventures did 6 each. Andreessen Horowitz, 12th with 4, was the only US investor on the table.",[44,93,94],{},"The Nordic top ten took part in 76 deals combined, against 265 for Europe's and 508 for the US's. The most active US investor did 79 on its own. Three investors tie for ninth with 5 deals each, which doesn't change the Nordic total. These totals show how deep each table runs, not how busy each market is for its size, since ten investors cover more of a small market.",[40,96,98],{"type":97},"known",[44,99,100,101,108,109,114],{},"Nordic VC funds raised €0.6B ($0.7B) across 15 vehicles in 2025, down from €2B ($2.2B) in 2024 (",[102,103,107],"a",{"href":104,"rel":105},"https:\u002F\u002Fpitchbook.brightspotcdn.com\u002F81\u002F62\u002Fbdb2ffcd4add9d798a4b6509122a\u002F2026-nordic-private-capital-breakdown.pdf",[106],"nofollow","PitchBook","). Dollar figures use the average ECB reference rate for each year: $1.0824 per euro for 2024 and $1.1300 for 2025 (",[102,110,113],{"href":111,"rel":112},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.suomenpankki.fi\u002Fen\u002Fstatistics\u002Finterest-rates-and-exchange-rates\u002Fexchange-rates\u002Faverage-annual-exchange-rates-for-the-year-2025",[106],"Bank of Finland",").",[51,116,118],{"id":117},"one-round-put-most-nordic-investors-on-europes-value-table","One round put most Nordic investors on Europe's value table",[44,120,121,124],{},[58,122,123],{},"Figure 2. Nordic investors show up most on Europe's VC deal-value table."," Share of ranked investors on each European table that are headquartered in the Nordics, Q2 2026.",[63,126,128,132],{":data":127,":decimals":66,":horizontal":67,"format":68},"[[\"VC deal value (8 of 37)\",21.62],[\"PE deal count (4 of 28)\",14.3],[\"VC deal count (1 of 28)\",3.6],[\"VC exit count (2 of 108)\",1.85]]",[71,129,130],{"v-slot:source":73},[44,131,76],{},[71,133,134],{"v-slot:note":73},[44,135,136],{},"Headquarters are my classification. One investor I couldn't place is excluded. Labels show Nordic investors out of all ranked investors on the table. The VC deal-value table runs to 37 because 13 tie for 25th place, and 5 of its 8 Nordic investors are in that tie.",[44,138,139,140,145],{},"Eight of the 37 investors on Europe's VC deal-value table are Nordic: EQT, Wallenberg Investments, AMF, SEB, Swedbank Robur, Scania Growth Capital, Altor and PostScriptum. Five of them (Wallenberg Investments, AMF, Swedbank Robur, Scania Growth Capital and Altor) sit in the 13-way tie at exactly $1.6B, along with non-Nordic investors such as Kobe Steel and Hy24. All seven invested in Stegra's €1.4B round, which closed on June 24 (",[102,141,144],{"href":142,"rel":143},"https:\u002F\u002Fmb.cision.com\u002FMain\u002F20623\u002F4366881\u002F4164862.pdf",[106],"Stegra","). Stegra is building a green steel plant in Boden, in northern Sweden, so most of the Nordic showing on this table is one industrial project. Above the tie, only 3 of 24 investors are Nordic: PostScriptum, EQT and SEB.",[44,147,148],{},"The tie also shows how the table counts value. Thirteen identical totals only make sense if every investor is credited with the whole round, so the table measures rounds joined, not money invested.",[44,150,151],{},"In private equity, Axcel was the second most active investor in Europe, with 25 deals. The Nordic PE top ten did 26% as many deals as the US PE top ten, against 15% for VC.",[44,153,154],{},"Few Nordic investors show up on the exit side: only 2 of the 108 on Europe's VC exit table, Tesi and SynerLeap. Stockholm-based Legora made 3 acquisitions of VC-backed companies, tied for eighth among acquirers worldwide.",[40,156,157],{"type":97},[44,158,159,160,114],{},"In 2025, buyouts were about a third of Nordic VC exits by count. By value it was an IPO year: Klarna's €12.7B ($14.4B) listing was most of the €18.7B ($21.1B) in Nordic VC exit value (",[102,161,107],{"href":104,"rel":162},[106],[51,164,166],{"id":165},"deal-terms-moved-toward-startups-over-the-year","Deal terms moved toward startups over the year",[44,168,169,170,175,176,181],{},"These figures come from ",[102,171,174],{"href":172,"rel":173},"https:\u002F\u002Fpitchbook.com\u002Fnews\u002Farticles\u002Fthe-pitchbook-vc-dealmaking-indicator",[106],"PitchBook's VC Dealmaking Indicator",", where a lower score means a more startup-friendly market. PitchBook doesn't split it by region, but it charts the indicator in its ",[102,177,180],{"href":178,"rel":179},"https:\u002F\u002Fnvca.org\u002Fwp-content\u002Fuploads\u002F2026\u002F04\u002FQ1-2026-PitchBook-NVCA-Venture-Monitor.pdf",[106],"US Venture Monitor",", which covers only US-headquartered companies, so I read it as US data. It runs through August 31, 2026, so Q3 covers only July and August.",[44,183,184],{},"The early-stage indicator was 42 in Q2 2026, down from 68 a year earlier. It peaked at 98 at the end of 2023 and has fallen every quarter since. Startups sought slightly less capital than investors supplied, a ratio of 0.98, down from 1.7. By company count, demand was 4.6 times supply.",[44,186,187],{},"Not every term moved toward startups. Cumulative dividends appeared in 22% of early rounds, up from 7% a year earlier. Participating preferred has almost disappeared from early rounds, at 6% against 44% at the start of 2010. The median early round valued the company at 2.5x its previous post-money valuation, up from 2.0x, and sold 19% of it, against 27% at the start of 2010.",[44,189,190],{},"Late stage is tougher for startups than early stage, but it eased too: the late-stage indicator fell to 64 from 77. Capital demand was 2.1 times supply, down from 2.6, and cumulative dividends appeared in 11% of late-stage rounds, down from 25%. Late-stage companies still waited 2.1 years between rounds, unchanged, against 1.3 years at early stage.",[44,192,193],{},"The partial Q3 figures put the early-stage indicator at 39 and the late-stage indicator flat at 64. By company count, early-stage demand rose to 5.4 times supply, the highest since the series began in 2010. Cumulative dividends appeared in 30% of late-stage rounds, up from 11% in Q2, and in 45% of venture-growth rounds, up from 9%.",[51,195,197],{"id":196},"what-this-means","What this means",[40,199,201,204],{"type":200},"my-read",[44,202,203],{},"For founders, many of the most active investors in a Nordic round are state funds, EU programs or university vehicles, as elsewhere in Europe. In PitchBook's data, early-stage step-ups rose and participating preferred is rare, but cumulative dividends became more common. Late-stage terms eased over the year, though late-stage companies still wait longer between rounds.",[44,205,206],{},"For investors in Nordic startups, private firms did a smaller share of leaderboard deals than in the US, so I'd expect many co-investors in a round to be public funds. Nordic PE's top ten is closer to the US's than Nordic VC's is, and buyouts were about a third of Nordic VC exits by count in 2025.",[51,208,210],{"id":209},"what-to-watch-in-q3","What to watch in Q3",[40,212,214,217],{"type":213},"open-question",[44,215,216],{},"Q3 has ended, but the full data isn't out yet. The next edition will test four expectations:",[218,219,220,224,239,242],"ul",{},[221,222,223],"li",{},"State funds, EU programs and university vehicles do between 40% and 55% of the Nordic leaderboard's deals (48% in Q2).",[221,225,226,227,232,233,238],{},"At least 5 Nordic investors make Europe's Q3 VC deal-value table (8 of 37 in Q2, 5 of them through Stegra). There were large rounds to join: Swedish startups raised €1.5B ($1.7B) in Q3, including €250M ($288M) of debt, with Neko Health's €614M ($706M) and Lovable's €346M ($398M) Series C rounds among them (",[102,228,231],{"href":229,"rel":230},"https:\u002F\u002Ffunding.tech.eu\u002Fgeographies\u002Fsweden\u002F2026\u002Fq3",[106],"tech.eu","). Dollar figures use $1.1505 per euro, my average of the ",[102,234,237],{"href":235,"rel":236},"https:\u002F\u002Fwww.ecb.europa.eu\u002Fstats\u002Fpolicy_and_exchange_rates\u002Feuro_reference_exchange_rates\u002Fhtml\u002Feurofxref-graph-usd.en.html",[106],"ECB's daily reference rates"," for the quarter.",[221,240,241],{},"The early-stage indicator stays at or below 42 for the full quarter (39 through August 31).",[221,243,244],{},"Cumulative dividends appear in at least 20% of late-stage rounds for the full quarter (30% through August 31).",[51,246,248],{"id":247},"how-sure-i-am-about-each-claim","How sure I am about each claim",[250,251,252,268],"table",{},[253,254,255],"thead",{},[256,257,258,262,265],"tr",{},[259,260,261],"th",{},"Claim",[259,263,264],{},"Status",[259,266,267],{},"Main source",[269,270,271,283,292,303,314,324,335,345],"tbody",{},[256,272,273,277,280],{},[274,275,276],"td",{},"State, EU and university investors did 48% of Nordic leaderboard deals, against 50% in Europe and 2% in the US",[274,278,279],{},"Known, my classification",[274,281,282],{},"League tables",[256,284,285,288,290],{},[274,286,287],{},"8 of 37 investors on Europe's VC deal-value table are Nordic, 5 of them in one tie at $1.6B",[274,289,279],{},[274,291,282],{},[256,293,294,297,300],{},[274,295,296],{},"The five tied Nordic investors got there through Stegra's €1.4B round",[274,298,299],{},"Known, my match of the table to the round",[274,301,302],{},"League tables, Stegra",[256,304,305,308,311],{},[274,306,307],{},"The value table credits each investor with the whole round",[274,309,310],{},"My read",[274,312,313],{},"13-way tie at $1.6B",[256,315,316,319,322],{},[274,317,318],{},"The Nordic PE top ten did 26% as many deals as the US PE top ten; VC 15%",[274,320,321],{},"My calculation",[274,323,282],{},[256,325,326,329,332],{},[274,327,328],{},"The early-stage indicator fell from 68 to 42 over the year to Q2 2026, and the late-stage indicator from 77 to 64",[274,330,331],{},"Known, US data in my reading",[274,333,334],{},"PitchBook dealmaking indicator, Venture Monitor",[256,336,337,340,342],{},[274,338,339],{},"Participating preferred fell from 44% of early rounds at the start of 2010 to 6%",[274,341,331],{},[274,343,344],{},"PitchBook dealmaking indicator",[256,346,347,350,353],{},[274,348,349],{},"Cumulative dividends appear in at least 20% of late-stage rounds for full Q3",[274,351,352],{},"Open question, 30% through August 31",[274,354,344],{},{"title":73,"searchDepth":356,"depth":356,"links":357},2,[358,359,360,361,362,363,364],{"id":53,"depth":356,"text":54},{"id":87,"depth":356,"text":88},{"id":117,"depth":356,"text":118},{"id":165,"depth":356,"text":166},{"id":196,"depth":356,"text":197},{"id":209,"depth":356,"text":210},{"id":247,"depth":356,"text":248},"2026-10-24","In Q2 2026, state, EU and university investors did about half the deals by the most active investors in Nordic VC, as in Europe and unlike the US. The Nordic bench was thin, and one round, Stegra's, put most Nordic institutions on Europe's deal-value table.","md","Note",{},true,{"title":29,"description":372},"State, EU and university investors did about half of Nordic leaderboard deals in Q2 2026, as in Europe and unlike the US.",{"loc":30},[375,382,386,391,394,399,402],{"label":376,"url":104,"type":377,"role":378,"establishes":379,"published":380,"accessed":381},"PitchBook, 2026 Nordic Private Capital Breakdown","dataset","secondary","PitchBook's 2025 figures for Nordic VC fundraising and exits, including the split of exits by type and Klarna's share of exit value.","2026-03-06","2026-10-14",{"label":383,"url":229,"type":377,"role":378,"establishes":384,"accessed":385},"tech.eu, Sweden funding tracker, Q3 2026","tech.eu's tally of disclosed Swedish rounds in Q3 2026, including debt, and the size of the Neko Health and Lovable rounds.","2026-10-16",{"label":387,"url":172,"type":377,"role":388,"establishes":389,"published":390,"accessed":381},"PitchBook, The PitchBook VC Dealmaking Indicator","primary","The dealmaking indicator for early-stage, late-stage and venture growth deals, where a higher score means a more investor-friendly market, and its seven components, with data through August 31, 2026.","2026-09-18",{"label":392,"url":178,"type":377,"role":388,"establishes":393,"accessed":365},"PitchBook and NVCA, Q1 2026 PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor","PitchBook charts its early-stage dealmaking indicator in this report on the US market, whose methodology counts only financings of US-headquartered companies.",{"label":395,"url":142,"type":396,"role":388,"establishes":397,"published":398,"accessed":365},"Stegra, Stegra announces closing of €1.4 billion financing round (2026)","company","The investors in Stegra's €1.4B round, closed June 24, 2026, including Wallenberg Investments, AMF, Scania, Altor, Swedbank Robur, Kobe Steel and Hy24.","2026-06-24",{"label":400,"url":111,"type":377,"role":388,"establishes":401,"accessed":381},"Bank of Finland, average annual exchange rates (ECB reference rates), 2024 and 2025","Average ECB reference rates of $1.0824 per euro for 2024 and $1.1300 per euro for 2025.",{"label":403,"url":235,"type":377,"role":388,"establishes":404,"accessed":381},"European Central Bank, euro foreign exchange reference rates, US dollar","The daily reference rates for July to September 2026, which average $1.1505 per euro (the author's calculation over 66 business days).",null,"KJiv_nj64QthXy5WtHKARSo2W_PSLFGpcRcYtRNv7FI",1793655690298]